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Engineering    2017, Vol. 3 Issue (5) : 773-778
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The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an international community-based infrastructure that supports climate model intercomparison, climate variability, climate prediction, and climate projection. Improving the performance of climate models over East Asia and the western North Pacific has been a challenge for the climate-modeling community. In this paper, we provide a synthesis robustness analysis of the climate models participating in CMIP-Phase 5 (CMIP5). The strengths and weaknesses of the CMIP5 models are assessed from the perspective of climate mean state, interannual variability, past climate change during the mid-Pliocene (MP) and the last millennium, and climate projection. The added values of regional climate models relative to the driving global climate models are also assessed. Although an encouraging increase in credibility and an improvement in the simulation of mean states, interannual variability, and past climate changes are visible in the progression from CMIP3 to CMIP5, some previously noticed biases such as the ridge position of the western North Pacific subtropical high and the associated rainfall bias are still evident in CMIP5 models. Weaknesses are also evident in simulations of the interannual amplitude, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon relationships. Coupled models generally show better results than standalone atmospheric models in simulating both mean states and interannual variability. Multi-model intercomparison indicates significant uncertainties in the future projection of climate change, although precipitation increases consistently across models constrained by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Regional ocean-atmosphere coupled models are recommended for the dynamical downscaling of climate change projections over the East Asia-western North Pacific domain.

Keywords East Asian monsoon      Western North Pacific climate      El Niño-Southern Oscillation      Past climate change      Climate projection      Coupled climate model      Regional climate model     
最新录用日期:    在线预览日期:    发布日期: 2017-11-08
Tianjun Zhou
Xiaolong Chen
Bo Wu
Zhun Guo
Yong Sun
Liwei Zou
Wenmin Man
Lixia Zhang
Chao He
Tianjun Zhou,Xiaolong Chen,Bo Wu, et al. A Robustness Analysis of CMIP5 Models over the East Asia-Western North Pacific Domain[J]. Engineering, 2017, 3(5): 773-778.
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Fig.1  Observed SST (shaded; units: °C), precipitation (contours; units: mm·d−1), and 850 hPa wind (vectors; units: m·s−1) regressed on the observed EASM index (NCEP-2 index, except for ERA-40) in (a) GPCP and NCEP-2; (b) CMAP and ERA-40; (c) CMIP3 MME; (d) CMIP5 MME. NCEP-2 and ERA-40 are two reanalysis data and GPCP and CMAP are two observed precipitation data. Details of these data are seen in Ref. [4]. Green (purple) lines represent the positive (negative) precipitation anomalies. Contour interval is 0.35 mm·d−1. Wind with magnitude less than 0.45 m·s−1 is omitted. The red dots indicate that the regressed SST is significant at the 10% level by Student’s t-test. NCEP: National Centers for Environmental Prediction; ERA-40: European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 45-year Reanalysis; GPCP: Global Precipitation Climatology Project; CMAP: Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation. (After Ref. [4])
Fig.2  Composite means of (a) precipitation (color shading; units: mm·d−1) and 850 hPa winds (vectors; units: m·s−1) and (b) surface air temperature (SAT) (°C) in the first summer after large volcanic eruptions. (After Ref. [36])
Fig.3  Projected future change of the summertime 500 hPa mean state over the western North Pacific. The shading is the change in geopotential height, and the vector is the change in wind. Changes in wind that are agreed upon by more than 75% of the models are stippled. The boundary of the subtropical high is indicated by the zero contour of the eddy geopotential height (solid line) and by the zero contour of the eddy stream function (dashed line), for the 20th century (blue line) and 21st century (red line), respectively. Hist: historical scenario. (After Ref. [51])
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