Please wait a minute...
Submit  |   Chinese  | 
 
Advanced Search
   Home  |  Online Now  |  Current Issue  |  Focus  |  Archive  |  For Authors  |  Journal Information   Open Access  
Submit  |   Chinese  | 
Engineering    2017, Vol. 3 Issue (5) : 773 -778     https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENG.2017.05.018
Research |
A Robustness Analysis of CMIP5 Models over the East Asia-Western North Pacific Domain
Tianjun Zhou(),Xiaolong Chen,Bo Wu,Zhun Guo,Yong Sun,Liwei Zou,Wenmin Man,Lixia Zhang,Chao He
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Abstract
Abstract  

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an international community-based infrastructure that supports climate model intercomparison, climate variability, climate prediction, and climate projection. Improving the performance of climate models over East Asia and the western North Pacific has been a challenge for the climate-modeling community. In this paper, we provide a synthesis robustness analysis of the climate models participating in CMIP-Phase 5 (CMIP5). The strengths and weaknesses of the CMIP5 models are assessed from the perspective of climate mean state, interannual variability, past climate change during the mid-Pliocene (MP) and the last millennium, and climate projection. The added values of regional climate models relative to the driving global climate models are also assessed. Although an encouraging increase in credibility and an improvement in the simulation of mean states, interannual variability, and past climate changes are visible in the progression from CMIP3 to CMIP5, some previously noticed biases such as the ridge position of the western North Pacific subtropical high and the associated rainfall bias are still evident in CMIP5 models. Weaknesses are also evident in simulations of the interannual amplitude, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon relationships. Coupled models generally show better results than standalone atmospheric models in simulating both mean states and interannual variability. Multi-model intercomparison indicates significant uncertainties in the future projection of climate change, although precipitation increases consistently across models constrained by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Regional ocean-atmosphere coupled models are recommended for the dynamical downscaling of climate change projections over the East Asia-western North Pacific domain.

Keywords East Asian monsoon      Western North Pacific climate      El Niño-Southern Oscillation      Past climate change      Climate projection      Coupled climate model      Regional climate model     
Corresponding Authors: Tianjun Zhou   
Just Accepted Date: 31 October 2017   Online First Date: 06 November 2017    Issue Date: 08 November 2017
Service
E-mail this article
E-mail Alert
RSS
Articles by authors
Tianjun Zhou
Xiaolong Chen
Bo Wu
Zhun Guo
Yong Sun
Liwei Zou
Wenmin Man
Lixia Zhang
Chao He
Cite this article:   
Tianjun Zhou,Xiaolong Chen,Bo Wu, et al. A Robustness Analysis of CMIP5 Models over the East Asia-Western North Pacific Domain[J]. Engineering, 2017, 3(5): 773 -778 .
URL:  
http://engineering.org.cn/EN/10.1016/J.ENG.2017.05.018     OR     http://engineering.org.cn/EN/Y2017/V3/I5/773
References
1   Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. B Am Meteorol Soc 2012;93(4):485–98
doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
2   Zhou T, Zou L, Wu B, Jin C, Song F, Chen X, et al.Development of earth/climate system models in China: A review from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project perspective. J Meteorol Res 2014;28(5):762–79
doi: 10.1007/s13351-014-4501-9
3   Jiang D, Tian Z, Lang X. Reliability of climate models for China through the IPCC Third to Fifth Assessment Reports. Int J Climatol 2016;36(3):1114–33
doi: 10.1002/joc.4406
4   Song F, Zhou T. Interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon simulated by CMIP3 and CMIP5 AGCMs: Skill dependence on Indian Ocean–western Pacific anticyclone teleconnection. J Clim 2014;27(4):1679–97
doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00248.1
5   Song F, Zhou T, Wang L. Two modes of the Silk Road pattern and their interannual variability simulated by LASG/IAP AGCM SAMIL2.0. Adv Atmos Sci 2013;30(3):908–21
doi: 10.1007/s00376-012-2145-1
6   Song F, Zhou T. The climatology and interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5 coupled models: Does air-sea coupling improve the simulations? J Clim 2014;27(23):8761–77
doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00396.1
7   Huang DQ, Zhu J, Zhang YC, Huang AN. Uncertainties on the simulated summer precipitation over eastern China from the CMIP5 models. J Geophys Res – Atmos 2013;118(16):9035–47
doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50695
8   He C, Zhou T. The two interannual variability modes of the western North Pacific subtropical high simulated by 28 CMIP5-AMIP models. Clim Dynam 2014;43(9–10):2455–69
doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2068-x
9   Sperber KR, Annamalai H, Kang IS, Kitoh A, Moise A, Turner A, et al.The Asian summer monsoon: An intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century. Clim Dynam 2013;41(9–10):2711–44
doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1607-6
10   Seo KH, Ok J, Son JH, Cha DH. Assessing future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon using CMIP5 coupled models. J Clim 2013;26(19):7662–75
doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00694.1
11   Qu X, Huang G, Zhou W. Consistent responses of East Asian summer mean rainfall to global warming in CMIP5 simulations. Theor Appl Climatol 2014;117(1–2):123–31
doi: 10.1007/s00704-013-0995-9
12   Kitoh A, Uchiyama T. Changes in onset and withdrawal of the East Asian summer rainy season by multi-model global warming experiments. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 2006;84(2):247–58
doi: 10.2151/jmsj.84.247
13   Zou L, Zhou T. Asian summer monsoon onset in simulations and CMIP5 projections using four Chinese climate models. Adv Atmos Sci 2015;32(6):794–806
doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-4053-z
14   Inoue T, Ueda H. Evaluation for the seasonal evolution of the summer monsoon over the Asian and western North Pacific sector in the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model experiments. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 2009;87(3):539–60
doi: 10.2151/jmsj.87.539
15   Park JY, Jhun JG, Yim SY, Kim WM. Decadal changes in two types of the western North Pacific subtropical high in boreal summer associated with Asian summer monsoon/El Niño-Southern Oscillation connections. J Geophys Res–Atmos 2010;115(D21):D21129
doi: 10.1029/2009JD013642
16   He C, Zhou T, Zou L, Zhang L. Two interannual variability modes of the Northwestern Pacific subtropical anticyclone in boreal summer. Sci China Earth Sci 2013;56(7):1254–65
doi: 10.1007/s11430-012-4443-y
17   Yun KS, Yeh SW, Ha KJ. Covariability of western tropical Pacific-North Pacific atmospheric circulation during summer. Sci Rep 2015;5:16980
doi: 10.1038/srep16980
18   Wang B, Wu R, Fu X. Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: How does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J Clim 2000;13(9):1517–36
doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1517:PEATHD>2.0.CO;2
19   Wang B, Wu R, Li T. Atmosphere-warm ocean interaction and its impacts on Asian-Australian monsoon variation. J Clim 2003;16(8):1195–211
doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)16<1195:AOIAII>2.0.CO;2
20   Wu B, Zhou T. Relationships between ENSO and the East Asian–western North Pacific monsoon: Observations versus 18 CMIP5 models. Clim Dynam 2016;46(3–4):729–43
doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2609-y
21   Wang B, Wu Z, Chang CP, Liu J, Li J, Zhou T. Another look at interannual-to-interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon: The northern and southern temperature modes. J Clim 2010;23(6):1495–512
doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3243.1
22   Zhang R, Sumi A, Kimoto M. A diagnostic study of the impact of El Niño on the precipitation in China. Adv Atmos Sci 1999;16(2):229–41
doi: 10.1007/BF02973084
23   Wang B, Wu RG, Lukas R, An SI. A possible mechanism for ENSO turnabout. In: IAP/Academia Sinica, editor Dynamics of atmospheric general circulation and climate. Beijing: China Meteorological Press; 2001. p. 552–78.
24   Wu B, Li T, Zhou T. Asymmetry of atmospheric circulation anomalies over the western North Pacific between El Niño and La Niño. J Clim 2010;23(18):4807–22
doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3222.1
25   Wu B, Li T, Zhou T. Relative contributions of the Indian Ocean and local SST anomalies to the maintenance of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone during the El Niño decaying summer. J Clim 2010;23(11):2974–86
doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3300.1
26   Wu B, Zhou T, Li T. Seasonally evolving dominant interannual variability modes of East Asian climate. J Clim 2009;22(11):2992–3005
doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2710.1
27   Xie SP, Hu K, Hafner J, Tokinaga H, Du Y, Huang G, et al.Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niño. J Clim 2009;22(3):730–47
doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2544.1
28   Kamae Y, Ueda H, Kitoh A. Hadley and Walker circulations in the mid-Pliocene warm period simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 2011;89(5):475–93
doi: 10.2151/jmsj.2011-505
29   Sun Y, Ramstein G, Contoux C, Zhou T. A comparative study of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the context of a future scenario (RCP4.5) and past warmth (mid-Pliocene). Clim Past 2013;9(4):1613–27
doi: 10.5194/cp-9-1613-2013
30   Seo KH, Frierson DMW, Son JH. A mechanism for future changes in Hadley circulation strength in CMIP5 climate change simulations. Geophys Res Lett 2014;41(14):5251–8
doi: 10.1002/2014GL060868
31   Jiang D, Wang H, Ding Z, Lang X, Drange H. Modeling the middle Pliocene climate with a global atmospheric general circulation model. J Geophys Res –Atmos 2005;110(D14):D14107
doi: 10.1029/2004JD005639
32   Zhang R, Yan Q, Zhang ZS, Jiang D, Otto-Bliesner BL, Haywood AM, et al.Mid-Pliocene East Asian monsoon climate simulated in the PlioMIP. Clim Past 2013;9(5):2085–99
doi: 10.5194/cp-9-2085-2013
33   Sun Y, Zhou T, Ramstein G, Contoux C, Zhang Z. Drivers and mechanisms for enhanced summer monsoon precipitation over East Asia during the mid-Pliocene in the IPSL-CM5A. Clim Dynam 2016;46(5–6):1437–57. Erratum in: Clim Dynam 2016;46(5–6):2027
doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2656-4
34   Man W, Zhou T, Jungclaus JH. Simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon during the last millennium with the MPI earth system model. J Clim 2012;25(22):7852–66
doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00462.1
35   Zhang P, Cheng H, Edwards RL, Chen F, Wang Y, Yang X, et al.A test of climate, sun, and culture relationships from an 1810-year Chinese cave record. Science 2008;322(5903):940–2
doi: 10.1126/science.1163965
36   Man W, Zhou T. Regional-scale surface air temperature and East Asian summer monsoon changes during the last millennium simulated by the FGOALS-gl climate system model. Adv Atmos Sci 2014;31(4):765–78
doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3123-y
37   Man W, Zhou T. Response of the East Asian summer monsoon to large volcanic eruptions during the last millennium. Chin Sci Bull 2014;59(31):4123–9
doi: 10.1007/s11434-014-0404-5
38   Cui X, Gao Y, Sun J. The response of the East Asian summer monsoon to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Adv Atmos Sci 2014;31(6):1245–55
doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-3239-8
39   Miao J, Wang T, Zhu Y, Min J, Wang H, Guo D. Response of the East Asian winter monsoon to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. J Clim 2016;29(13):5041–57
doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0600.1
40   Min SK, Park EH, Kwon WT. Future projections of East Asian climate change from multi-AOGCM ensembles of IPCC SRES scenario simulations. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 2004;82(4):1187–211
doi: 10.2151/jmsj.2004.1187
41   Sun Y, Ding Y. A projection of future changes in summer precipitation and monsoon in East Asia. Sci China Earth Sci 2010;53(2):284–300
doi: 10.1007/s11430-009-0123-y
42   Li H, Feng L, Zhou T. Multi-model projection of July-August climate extreme changes over China under CO2 doubling. Part I: Precipitation. Adv Atmos Sci 2011;28(2):433–47
doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-0013-4
43   Zou L, Zhou T. Near future (2016–40) summer precipitation changes over China as projected by a regional climate model (RCM) under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario: Comparison between RCM downscaling and the driving GCM. Adv Atmos Sci 2013;30(3):806–18
doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2209-x
44   Xin X, Zhang L, Zhang J, Wu T, Fang Y. Climate change projections over East Asia with BCC_CSM1.1 climate model under RCP scenarios. J Meteor Soc Jpn 2013;91(4):413–29
doi: 10.2151/jmsj.2013-401
45   Christensen JH, Krishna Kumar K, Aldrian E, , An SI, Cavalcanti IFA, de Castro M,et al. Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, et al., editors Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes. New York: Cambridge University Press; 2013. p. 1217–308.
46   Zhou B, Xu Y, Shi Y. Present and future connection of Asian-Pacific Oscillation to large-scale atmospheric circulations and East Asian rainfall: Results of CMIP5. Clim Dynam 2017. In press
doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3579-z
47   Jiang DB, Tian ZP. East Asian monsoon change for the 21st century: Results of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Chin Sci Bull 2013;58(12):1427–35
doi: 10.1007/s11434-012-5533-0
48   Wang B, Yim SY, Lee JY, Liu J, Ha KJ. Future change of Asian-Australian monsoon under RCP4.5 anthropogenic warming scenario. Clim Dynam 2014;42(1–2):83–100
doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1769-x
49   Lee JY, Wang B. Future change of global monsoon in the CMIP5. Clim Dynam 2014;42(1–2):101–19
doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1564-0
50   Kitoh A, Endo H, Krishna Kumar K, Cavalcanti IFA, Goswami P, Zhou T. Monsoons in a changing world: A regional perspective in a global context. J Geophys Res–Atmos 2013;118(8):3053–65
doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50258
51   He C, Zhou T, Lin A, Wu B, Gu D, Li C, et al.Enhanced or weakened western North Pacific subtropical high under global warming? Sci Rep 2015;5:16771
doi: 10.1038/srep16771
52   He C, Zhou T. Responses of the western North Pacific subtropical high to global warming under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios projected by 33 CMIP5 models: The dominance of tropical Indian Ocean-tropical western Pacific SST gradient. J Clim 2015;28(1):365–80
doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00494.1
53   Ogata T, Ueda H, Inoue T, Hayasaki M, Yoshida A, Watanabe S, et al.Projected future changes in the Asian monsoon: A comparison of CMIP3 and CMIP5 model results. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 2014;92(3):207–25
doi: 10.2151/jmsj.2014-302
54   Ren Y, Zhou B, Song L, Xiao Y. Interannual variability of western North Pacific subtropical high, East Asian jet and East Asian summer precipitation: CMIP5 simulation and projection. Quatern Int 2017;440(Part B):64–70.
55   Li H, Feng L, Zhou T. Multi-model projection of July-August climate extreme changes over China under CO2 doubling. Part II: Temperature. Adv Atmos Sci 2011;28(2):448–63
doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-0052-x
56   Chen HP. Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models. Chin Sci Bull 2013;58(12):1462–72
doi: 10.1007/s11434-012-5612-2
57   Wu J, Zhou BT, Xu Y. Response of precipitation and its extremes over China to warming: CMIP5 simulation and projection. Chin J Geophys 2015;58(5): 461–73
doi: 10.1002/cjg2.20187
58   Wang Y, Zhou B, Qin D, Wu J, Gao R, Song L. Changes in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation over the arid region of northwestern China: Observation and projection. Adv Atmos Sci 2017;34(3):289–305
doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-6160-5
59   Sun Y, Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Song L, Wan H, Hu T, et al.Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in eastern China. Nat Clim Chang 2014;4(12):1082–5
doi: 10.1038/nclimate2410
60   Zhou B, Wen QH, Xu Y, Song L, Zhang X. Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in China by the CMIP5 multimodel ensembles. J Clim 2014;27(17):6591–611
doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00761.1
61   Zhou T, Hong T. Projected changes of palmer drought severity index under an RCP8.5 scenario. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 2013;6(5):273–8
doi: 10.1080/16742834.2013.11447093
62   Chen X, Zhou T, Guo Z. Climate sensitivities of two versions of FGOALS model to idealized radiative forcing. Sci China Earth Sci 2014;57(6):1363–73
doi: 10.1007/s11430-013-4692-4
63   Van Pelt SC, Beersma JJ, Buishand TA, van den Hurk BJJM, Schellekens J. Uncertainty in the future change of extreme precipitation over the Rhine basin: The role of internal climate variability. Clim Dynam 2015;44(7–8):1789–800
doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2312-4
64   Turner AG, Slingo JM. Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the Indian monsoon region. Atmos Sci Lett 2009;10(3):152–8
doi: 10.1002/asl.223
65   Chen X, Zhou T. Distinct effects of global mean warming and regional sea surface warming pattern on projected uncertainty in the South Asian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 2015;42(21):9433–9
doi: 10.1002/2015GL066384
66   Oh SG, Park JH, Lee SH, Suh MS. Assessment of the RegCM4 over East Asia and future precipitation change adapted to the RCP scenarios. J Geophys Res–Atmos 2014;119(6):2913–27
doi: 10.1002/2013JD020693
67   Park C, Min SK, Lee D, Cha DH, Suh MS, Kang HS, et al.Evaluation of multiple regional climate models for summer climate extremes over East Asia. Clim Dynam 2016;46(7–8):2469–86
doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2713-z
68   Niu X, Wang S, Tang J, Lee DK, Gutowski W, Dairaku K, et al.Projection of Indian summer monsoon climate in 2041–2060 by multiregional and global climate models. J Geophys Res–Atmos 2015;120(5):1776–93
doi: 10.1002/2014JD022620
69   Yao S, Zhang Y. Simulation of China summer precipitation using a regional air-sea coupled model. Acta Meteorol Sin 2010;24(2):203–14.
70   Li T, Zhou G. Preliminary results of a regional air-sea coupled model over East Asia. Chin Sci Bull 2010;55(21):2295–305
doi: 10.1007/s11434-010-3071-1
71   Fang Y, Zhang Y. Impacts of regional air-sea coupling on the simulation of summer precipitation over eastern China in the RIEMS model. Chin J Atmos Sci 2011;35(1):16–28. Chinese.
72   Wang HJ, Sun JQ, Chen HP, Zhu YL, Zhang Y, Jiang DB, et al.Extreme climate in China: Facts, simulation and projection. Meteorol Z 2012;21(3):279–304
doi: 10.1127/0941-2948/2012/0330
73   Zou L, Zhou T. Development and evaluation of a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model with focus on the western North Pacific summer monsoon simulation: Impacts of different atmospheric components. Sci China Earth Sci 2012;55(5):802–15
doi: 10.1007/s11430-011-4281-3
74   Zou L, Zhou T. Can a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model improve the simulation of the interannual variability of the western North Pacific summer monsoon? J Clim 2013;26(7):2353–67
doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00722.1
75   Zou L, Zhou T. Simulation of the western North Pacific summer monsoon by regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model: Impacts of oceanic components. Chin Sci Bull 2014;59(7):662–73
doi: 10.1007/s11434-013-0104-6
76   Cha DH, Jin CS, Moon JH, Lee DK. Improvement of regional climate simulation of East Asian summer monsoon by coupled air-sea interaction and large-scale nudging. Int J Climatol 2016;36(1):334–45
doi: 10.1002/joc.4349
77   Ham S, Yoshimura K, Li H. Historical dynamical downscaling for East Asia with the atmosphere and ocean coupled regional model. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 2016;94A:199–208
doi: 10.2151/jmsj.2015-046
78   Zou L, Zhou T, Peng D. Dynamical downscaling of historical climate over CORDEX East Asia domain: A comparison of regional ocean atmosphere coupled model to stand-alone RCM simulations. J Geophys Res– Atmos 2016;121(4):1442–58
doi: 10.1002/2015JD023912
79   Zou L, Zhou T. Future summer precipitation changes over CORDEX-East Asia domain downscaled by a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model: A comparison to the stand-alone RCM. J Geophys Res– Atmos 2016;121(6):2691–704
doi: 10.1002/2015JD024519
Related
[1] Xuejie Gao,Filippo Giorgi. Use of the RegCM System over East Asia: Review and Perspectives[J]. Engineering, 2017, 3(5): 766 -772 .
Copyright © 2015 Higher Education Press & Engineering Sciences Press, All Rights Reserved.
Today's visits ;Accumulated visits . 京ICP备11030251号-2

 Engineering