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Engineering    2017, Vol. 3 Issue (5) : 773 -778
Research |
A Robustness Analysis of CMIP5 Models over the East Asia-Western North Pacific Domain
Tianjun Zhou(),Xiaolong Chen,Bo Wu,Zhun Guo,Yong Sun,Liwei Zou,Wenmin Man,Lixia Zhang,Chao He
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an international community-based infrastructure that supports climate model intercomparison, climate variability, climate prediction, and climate projection. Improving the performance of climate models over East Asia and the western North Pacific has been a challenge for the climate-modeling community. In this paper, we provide a synthesis robustness analysis of the climate models participating in CMIP-Phase 5 (CMIP5). The strengths and weaknesses of the CMIP5 models are assessed from the perspective of climate mean state, interannual variability, past climate change during the mid-Pliocene (MP) and the last millennium, and climate projection. The added values of regional climate models relative to the driving global climate models are also assessed. Although an encouraging increase in credibility and an improvement in the simulation of mean states, interannual variability, and past climate changes are visible in the progression from CMIP3 to CMIP5, some previously noticed biases such as the ridge position of the western North Pacific subtropical high and the associated rainfall bias are still evident in CMIP5 models. Weaknesses are also evident in simulations of the interannual amplitude, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon relationships. Coupled models generally show better results than standalone atmospheric models in simulating both mean states and interannual variability. Multi-model intercomparison indicates significant uncertainties in the future projection of climate change, although precipitation increases consistently across models constrained by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Regional ocean-atmosphere coupled models are recommended for the dynamical downscaling of climate change projections over the East Asia-western North Pacific domain.

Keywords East Asian monsoon      Western North Pacific climate      El Niño-Southern Oscillation      Past climate change      Climate projection      Coupled climate model      Regional climate model     
Corresponding Authors: Tianjun Zhou   
Just Accepted Date: 31 October 2017   Online First Date: 06 November 2017    Issue Date: 08 November 2017
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Tianjun Zhou
Xiaolong Chen
Bo Wu
Zhun Guo
Yong Sun
Liwei Zou
Wenmin Man
Lixia Zhang
Chao He
Cite this article:   
Tianjun Zhou,Xiaolong Chen,Bo Wu, et al. A Robustness Analysis of CMIP5 Models over the East Asia-Western North Pacific Domain[J]. Engineering, 2017, 3(5): 773 -778 .
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